About this calculator

This calculator is based on a statistical model known as the Gail model, one of the oldest and well validated risk estimation models. The calculator estimates the 5-year risk of developing breast cancer, as well as the lifetime risk, assuming a life expectancy of 90 years.

The calculator has been validated in large populations of Caucasian women, as well as in populations of Black/African American, Hispanic, Asian and Pacific Islander women. Risk estimation in non-Caucasian women may be less accurate due to more limited data in these populations.

The calculator is only indicated for women with no history of breast cancer, lobular carcinoma in situ or ductal carcinoma in situ. In women with a personal history of breast cancer or known mutations in genes associated with hereditary breast cancer syndromes, other tools may be more appropriate.

About Gail Model Creator

Mitchell Gail, MD, PhD, is an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University and a principal investigator at the National Cancer Institute Division of Cancer Epidemiology & Genetics, Biostatistics Branch. He is a former president of the American Statistical Association. He has won numerous awards, most notably the American Cancer Society Award for Research Excellence in Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention. His research focuses on creating models for determining absolute risk of diseases.

Disclaimer

This calculator is not a medical device and is not considered a substitute for medical care. It is intended to provide approximate information about breast cancer risk based on the data provided. The risk calculation is subject to the veracity of the data entered by the physician or patient. No data is stored by Veritas Intercontinental and no report is issued with the results of the calculator. We recommend that you share the result with your specialist.

References

Gail MH, Brinton LA, Byar DP, Corle DK, Green SB, Shairer C, Mulvihill JJ: Projecting individualized probabilities of developing breast cancer for white females who are being examined annually.  J Natl Cancer Inst 81(24):1879-86, 1989. 

Costantino JP, Gail MH, Pee D, Anderson S, Redmond CK, Benichou J, Wieand HS: Validation studies for models projecting the risk of invasive and total breast cancer incidence.  J Natl Cancer Inst 91(18):1541-8, 1999. 

Gail MH, Costantino JP, Bryant J, Croyle R, Freedman L, Helzlsouer K, Vogel V: Weighing the risks and benefits of tamoxifen treatment for preventing breast cancer.  J Natl Cancer Inst 91(21):1829-46, 1999. 

Rockhill B, Spiegelman D, Byrne C, Hunter DJ, Colditz GA: Validation of the Gail et al. model of breast cancer risk prediction and implications for chemoprevention.  J Natl Cancer Inst 93(5):358-66, 2001. 

Gail MH, Costantino JP, Pee D, Bondy M, Newman L, Selvan M, Anderson GL, Malone KE, Marchbanks PA, McCaskill-Stevens W, Norman SA, Simon MS, Spirtas R, Ursin G, and Bernstein L. Projecting Individualized Absolute Invasive Breast Cancer Risk in African American Women.  J Natl Cancer Inst 99(23):1782-1792, 2007. 

Matsuno RK, Costantino JP, Ziegler RG, Anderson GL, Li H, Pee D, Gail MH. Projecting Individualized Absolute Invasive Breast Cancer Risk in Asian and Pacific Island American Women.  J Natl Cancer Inst 2011. 

Banegas MP, John EM, Slattery ML, Gomez SL, Yu M, LaCroix AZ, Rowan DP. Hines CL, Thompson CA, Gail MH:  Projecting Individualized Absolute Invasive Breast Cancer Risk in US Hispanic Women.  J Natl Cancer Inst 109(2), 2017. doi: 10.1093/jnci/djw215.